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Burn The Playbook

"The column DC reads and hopes you don’t."
All burns original · Every name sourced · Every comfortable version killed
BTP Polling · Election Room

What do the polls
actually say?

See the numbers. Check who asked, who paid, and who answered. Then see how much the average depends on them.

The polling board

Adults, registered voters and likely voters stay separate. An average needs three different polling organizations with complete methods.

BTP average

2026 congressional ballot

Likely voters · Online surveys

51.3%Democrat
42.5%Republican

Democrat minus Republican: +8.8 points

2026-10-132026-10-15
Democrat minus Republican. Only days with three qualifying organizations are drawn.

Included poll margins run from 7 to 13 points. This is the spread of polls, not a confidence interval or an election prediction.

Remove a pollster. Does the picture change?

Removing a pollster leaves fewer than three organizations. We don’t publish an average from that smaller set.

What if the polls share the same mistake?

These are stress tests, not probabilities. Shift every included margin by three points: 5.8 to 11.8. Shift by five: 3.8 to 13.8. The sizes are illustrative and are not calibrated uncertainty limits.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-10-04 · More than seven days old.

3 included surveys and their weights
  • Morning Consult · 2026-09-28–2026-10-04
    Democrat 50% · Republican 43% · Weight 61.3%
    n=17,659 · Likely voters · Online quota sample
    Publisher-reported error ±0.9 points · Sponsor: Morning Consult
    Original release · Methods

    Checked the live tracker, updated October 4. Historical availability begins at BTP’s October 13 observation because an original publication timestamp is not provided. The publisher calls the reported ±0.9 points a margin of error; this is an online quota sample, so we preserve the reported value without calling it a probability-sample margin.

  • Emerson College · 2026-09-21–2026-09-22
    Democrat 53% · Republican 42% · Weight 27.6%
    n=1,000 · Likely voters · Text-to-web and online panel
    Credibility interval ±3 points · Sponsor: Emerson College Polling
    Original release · Methods

    Original release date not supplied in the checked page text. Historical availability starts at BTP’s first observation on October 13.

  • Marquette Law School · 2026-09-02–2026-09-09
    Democrat 54% · Republican 41% · Weight 11.1%
    n=581 · Likely voters · SSRS probability-based online panel
    Sampling error ±4.3 points · Sponsor: Marquette Law School
    Original release · Methods

2 checked surveys · no average

Donald Trump approval

Registered voters · Mixed survey methods

Too few comparable surveys for a BTP average. The individual results are below. One poll cannot tell us where an entire race stands.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-09-15 · More than seven days old.

2 included surveys
  • Marist University · 2026-09-14–2026-09-15
    Approve 39% · Disapprove 59%
    n=1,280 · Registered voters · Live telephone, text and online
    Sampling error ±3.8 points · Sponsor: NPR, PBS News
    Original release · Methods
  • Big Data Poll · 2026-09-13–2026-09-15
    Approve 38.8% · Disapprove 58.5%
    n=2,947 · Registered voters · Online panel, live-agent telephone and text-to-web
    Publisher-reported error ±1.8 points · Sponsor: Public Polling Project
    Original release · Methods

1 checked survey · no average

2026 congressional ballot

Registered voters · Mixed survey methods

Too few comparable surveys for a BTP average. The individual results are below. One poll cannot tell us where an entire race stands.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-09-15 · More than seven days old.

1 included survey
  • Marist University · 2026-09-14–2026-09-15
    Democrat 53% · Republican 41%
    n=1,280 · Registered voters · Live telephone, text and online
    Sampling error ±3.8 points · Sponsor: NPR, PBS News
    Original release · Methods

1 checked survey · no average

2026 congressional ballot

Registered voters · Online surveys

Too few comparable surveys for a BTP average. The individual results are below. One poll cannot tell us where an entire race stands.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-09-09 · More than seven days old.

1 included survey
  • Marquette Law School · 2026-09-02–2026-09-09
    Democrat 50% · Republican 42%
    n=864 · Registered voters · SSRS probability-based online panel
    Sampling error ±3.6 points · Sponsor: Marquette Law School
    Original release · Methods

1 checked survey · no average

2026 congressional ballot

Likely voters · Mixed survey methods

Too few comparable surveys for a BTP average. The individual results are below. One poll cannot tell us where an entire race stands.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-09-15 · More than seven days old.

1 included survey
  • Big Data Poll · 2026-09-13–2026-09-15
    Democrat 48.3% · Republican 37.4%
    n=2,633 · Likely voters · Online panel, live-agent telephone and text-to-web
    Publisher-reported error ±1.7 points · Sponsor: Public Polling Project
    Original release · Methods

    Initial ballot only. The separate question with leaners gives 50.5% / 39.3% and is not substituted. The publisher calls ±1.7 a sampling error; its design includes an online panel, so we preserve that reported value without assuming a probability sample.

1 checked survey · no average

2026 Maine Senate

Registered voters · Mixed survey methods

Too few comparable surveys for a BTP average. The individual results are below. One poll cannot tell us where an entire race stands.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-10-04 · More than seven days old.

1 included survey
  • Marist University · 2026-10-01–2026-10-04
    Susan Collins 47% · Troy Jackson 51%
    n=1,505 · Registered voters · Live telephone, text and online
    Sampling error ±3.8 points · Sponsor: Marist University
    Original release · Methods

1 checked survey · no average

2026 North Carolina Senate

Likely voters · Online surveys

Too few comparable surveys for a BTP average. The individual results are below. One poll cannot tell us where an entire race stands.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-10-03 · More than seven days old.

1 included survey
  • East Carolina University · 2026-09-30–2026-10-03
    Michael Whatley 43% · Roy Cooper 50%
    n=810 · Likely voters · Text-to-web and online panel
    Credibility interval ±4 points · Sponsor: ECU Center for Survey Research
    Original release · Methods

    BTP uses the initial question (50% / 43%). The feed reported a separate forced-choice question (53% / 46%). Other and undecided answers are not redistributed.

1 checked survey · no average

Donald Trump approval

Adults · Mixed survey methods

Too few comparable surveys for a BTP average. The individual results are below. One poll cannot tell us where an entire race stands.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-10-04 · More than seven days old.

1 included survey
  • Pew Research Center · 2026-09-28–2026-10-04
    Approve 30% · Disapprove 68%
    n=5,062 · Adults · Online panel and live telephone
    Sampling error ±1.6 points · Sponsor: Pew Research Center
    Original release · Methods

    The original release starts fieldwork September 28; the feed listed September 30. BTP uses the original dates.

1 checked survey · no average

Donald Trump approval

Likely voters · Online surveys

Too few comparable surveys for a BTP average. The individual results are below. One poll cannot tell us where an entire race stands.

Newest fieldwork ended 2026-09-22 · More than seven days old.

1 included survey
  • Emerson College · 2026-09-21–2026-09-22
    Approve 39% · Disapprove 58%
    n=1,000 · Likely voters · Text-to-web and online panel
    Credibility interval ±3 points · Sponsor: Emerson College Polling
    Original release · Methods

    Original release date not supplied in the checked page text. Historical availability starts at BTP’s first observation on October 13.

Politics in your pocket

What people say about money and everyday life. These are individual surveys, each asking its own question.

One survey · Marist University

Are family finances getting worse?

42% About the same

20% Better

34% Worse

Change in family finances over the past year

n=1280 · Registered voters · 2026-09-14–2026-09-15 · Live telephone, text and online · Reported error ±3.8 points · Sponsor: NPR, PBS News

Read the question and original findings

Every poll. Including the gaps.

Incomplete records remain visible. They do not enter the average. An old survey stays in the record after its 45-day averaging window closes.

174 records

Polling feed and checked primary-source records, newest field dates first
Poll / field datesResultsWho answeredWho paid / howSource check
2026 Mississippi
Wedgewood Polls
2026-10-12–2026-10-14
Cindy Hyde-Smith: 52%Scott Colom: 48% Likely voters
n=511
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
ActiVote
2026-09-30–2026-10-14
James Talarico: 51.9%Ken Paxton: 48.1% Likely voters
n=400
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
YouGov
2026-10-06–2026-10-12
Ashley Hinson: 46%Josh Turek: 47% Likely voters
n=2,245
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Minnesota
SurveyUSA
2026-10-08–2026-10-12
Marisa Simonetti: 2%Michele Tafoya: 42%Peggy Flanagan: 45%Rebecca Whiting: 2% Likely voters
n=718
KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
Marist University
2026-10-08–2026-10-11
Ashley Hinson: 45%Josh Turek: 48% Likely voters
n=1,100
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
SurveyUSA
2026-10-07–2026-10-11
Michael Whatley: 40%Roy Cooper: 54% Likely voters
n=643
WRAL-TV, WSOC-TV
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
Quantus Insights
2026-10-09–2026-10-11
James Talarico: 46.7%Ken Paxton: 47.2%Ted Brown: 2.2% Likely voters
n=854
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
MDW
2026-10-04–2026-10-10
Angie Nixon: 42%Ashley Moody: 48% Likely voters
n=800
EDGE Communications
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
ReconMR/Siena University
2026-10-05–2026-10-08
James Talarico: 48%Ken Paxton: 44% Likely voters
n=617
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
St. Pete Polls
2026-10-05–2026-10-07 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 45%Ashley Moody: 47% Likely voters
n=836
Florida Politics
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
Change Research
2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · Older than 7 days
Michael Dublin: 1%Michael Whatley: 40%Roy Cooper: 50%Shannon Bray: 2% Likely voters
n=829
Carolina ForwardPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
Donald Trump
RMG Research
2026-09-28–2026-10-06 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 43%Disapprove: 56% Registered voters
n=2,000
Napolitan Institute
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
co/efficient
2026-10-05–2026-10-06 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 46%Sherrod Brown: 45% Likely voters
n=925
Sponsor not reportedPARTISAN · REP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
co/efficient
2026-10-05–2026-10-06 · Older than 7 days
Bill Redpath: 1%Gregory Levy: 3%Jon Husted: 44%Sherrod Brown: 43% Likely voters
n=925
Sponsor not reportedPARTISAN · REP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
Emerson College
2026-10-05–2026-10-06 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 46.6%Josh Turek: 45%Thomas Laehn: 1.5% Likely voters
n=650
Nexstar Media
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
CNN/SSRS
2026-09-29–2026-10-05 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 43%Sherrod Brown: 49% Likely voters
n=760
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
CNN/SSRS
2026-09-29–2026-10-05 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 45%Josh Turek: 43% Likely voters
n=801
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government
2026-09-30–2026-10-05 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 45%Troy Jackson: 50% Likely voters
n=800
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Nebraska
National Public Affairs
2026-10-02–2026-10-05 · Older than 7 days
Dan Osborn: 46%Pete Ricketts: 49% Likely voters
n=800
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026
Pew Research Center
2026-09-30–2026-10-04 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 44%Republican: 36% Registered voters
n=3,917
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Minnesota
GQR
2026-10-01–2026-10-04 · Older than 7 days
Marisa Simonetti: 4%Michele Tafoya: 42%Peggy Flanagan: 50%Rebecca Whiting: 2% Likely voters
n=800
Senate Majority PACPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
Targoz Market Research
2026-09-28–2026-10-04 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 42%Ashley Moody: 52% Likely voters
n=857
The James Madison Institute
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
Targoz Market Research
2026-09-28–2026-10-04 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 38%Ashley Moody: 50% Registered voters
n=1,200
The James Madison Institute
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Arkansas
Grayhouse
2026-09-30–2026-10-04 · Older than 7 days
Hallie Shoffner: 40%Jeff Wadlin: 4%Tom Cotton: 51% Likely voters
n=550
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
Donald Trump
Pew Research Center
2026-09-28–2026-10-04 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 30%Disapprove: 68% Adults
n=5,062
Pew Research Center
Online panel and live telephone
Sampling error ±1.6
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13

The original release starts fieldwork September 28; the feed listed September 30. BTP uses the original dates.


Source release →
2026 Maine
Marist University
2026-10-01–2026-10-04 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 47%Troy Jackson: 51% Registered voters
n=1,505
Marist University
Live telephone, text and online
Sampling error ±3.8
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13
Source release →
2026
Morning Consult
2026-09-28–2026-10-04 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 50%Republican: 43% Likely voters
n=17,659
Morning Consult
Online quota sample
Publisher-reported error ±0.9
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13

Checked the live tracker, updated October 4. Historical availability begins at BTP’s October 13 observation because an original publication timestamp is not provided. The publisher calls the reported ±0.9 points a margin of error; this is an online quota sample, so we preserve the reported value without calling it a probability-sample margin.


Source release →
2026 Georgia
Wedgewood Polls
2026-10-02–2026-10-03 · Older than 7 days
Jon Ossoff: 55%Mike Collins: 45% Likely voters
n=600
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
East Carolina University
2026-09-30–2026-10-03 · Older than 7 days
Michael Whatley: 43%Roy Cooper: 50% Likely voters
n=810
ECU Center for Survey Research
Text-to-web and online panel
Credibility interval ±4
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13

BTP uses the initial question (50% / 43%). The feed reported a separate forced-choice question (53% / 46%). Other and undecided answers are not redistributed.


Source release →
2026
YouGov - CBS News
2026-09-30–2026-10-02 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 54%Republican: 45% Likely voters
n=1,572
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
Wedgewood Polls
2026-09-27–2026-10-01 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 48%Troy Jackson: 52% Likely voters
n=400
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Mitchell Research & Communications
2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 46%Douglas P. Marsh: 1%Lydia Christensen: 3%Mike Rogers: 41%Tim Long: 1%Walter P. Kristy: 2% Likely voters
n=682
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Illinois
Public Policy Polling
2026-09-30–2026-10-01 · Older than 7 days
Don Tracy: 36%Juliana Stratton: 49% Likely voters
n=569
Chicago News WeeklyPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Z to A Research
2026-09-28–2026-10-01 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 49%Lydia Christensen: 3%Mike Rogers: 42% Likely voters
n=483
Rust Belt RisingPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
co/efficient
2026-09-28–2026-09-30 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 48%Troy Jackson: 46% Likely voters
n=1,240
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Trafalgar Group
2026-09-28–2026-09-30 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 47%Douglas P. Marsh: 0%Lydia Christensen: 2%Mike Rogers: 45%Tim Long: 1%Walter P. Kristy: 0% Likely voters
n=1,085
Sponsor not reportedPARTISAN · REP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Alaska
Quantus Insights
2026-09-28–2026-09-30 · Older than 7 days
Dan Sullivan: 47.8%Mary Peltola: 47.2% Likely voters
n=758
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Minnesota
Big Data Poll
2026-09-29–2026-09-30 · Older than 7 days
Michele Tafoya: 44%Peggy Flanagan: 46%Rebecca Whiting: 5% Likely voters
n=622
Public Polling Project
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 New Mexico
SurveyUSA
2026-09-25–2026-09-30 · Older than 7 days
Ben Ray Luján: 54%Larry Marker: 36% Likely voters
n=576
KOB-TV (Albuquerque)
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
Big Data Poll
2026-09-27–2026-09-29 · Older than 7 days
Michael Dublin: 4%Michael Whatley: 39%Roy Cooper: 51%Shannon Bray: 7% Likely voters
n=642
Public Polling Project
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-28–2026-09-29 · Older than 7 days
Bill Redpath: 4%Greg Levy: 2%Jon Husted: 43%Sherrod Brown: 44% Likely voters
n=1,200
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 South Carolina
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-28–2026-09-29 · Older than 7 days
Annie Andrews: 45%Darline Graham: 46%Kasie Whitener: 2%Mark Hackett: 3% Likely voters
n=1,200
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026
HarrisX/Harris
2026-09-26–2026-09-28 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 51%Republican: 49% Likely voters
n=Not reported
Harvard University Center for American Political Studies
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sample / population, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
2026-09-24–2026-09-28 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 50%Mike Rogers: 49% Likely voters
n=1,028
Fox News
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
2026-09-24–2026-09-28 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 47%Josh Turek: 49% Likely voters
n=1,008
Fox News
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
2026-09-24–2026-09-28 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 51%Ken Paxton: 49% Likely voters
n=881
Fox News
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
Guidant Polling and Strategy
2026-09-20–2026-09-28 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 46.6%Ken Paxton: 44.2%Ted Brown: 4% Likely voters
n=800
Public First Action
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov
2026-09-18–2026-09-28 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 45%Ken Paxton: 45%Ted Brown: 2% Likely voters
n=850
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
Change Research
2026-09-25–2026-09-27 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 47%Ashley Moody: 48% Likely voters
n=1,063
Freedom Project USA
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
Marist University
2026-09-24–2026-09-27 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 43%Sherrod Brown: 51% Registered voters
n=1,298
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
Big Data Poll
2026-09-26–2026-09-27 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 42.6%Sherrod Brown: 46.3% Likely voters
n=680
Public Polling Project
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Guidant Polling and Strategy
2026-09-20–2026-09-27 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 48%Douglas P. Marsh: 0%Lydia Christensen: 1%Mike Rogers: 43%Tim Long: 1%Walter P. Kristy: 0% Likely voters
n=800
Public First Action
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Alabama
RMG Research
2026-09-21–2026-09-25 · Older than 7 days
Barry Moore: 54%Everett Wess: 33% Registered voters
n=800
Alabama Policy ActionPARTISAN · REP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Kansas
Wedgewood Polls
2026-09-22–2026-09-24 · Older than 7 days
Adam Hamilton: 50%David Graham: 2%Roger Marshall: 48% Likely voters
n=500
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Montana
American Pulse Research & Polling
2026-09-19–2026-09-24 · Older than 7 days
Alani Bankhead: 19%Kurt Alme: 45%Seth Bodnar: 26% Likely voters
n=604
KULR-TV
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
co/efficient
2026-09-21–2026-09-23 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 50%Mike Rogers: 50% Likely voters
n=843
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
Quantus Insights
2026-09-21–2026-09-23 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 47.3%Sherrod Brown: 47.8% Likely voters
n=695
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Georgia
Big Data Poll
2026-09-21–2026-09-23 · Older than 7 days
Jon Ossoff: 55.4%Mike Collins: 44.6% Likely voters
n=678
Public Polling Project
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Georgia
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-22–2026-09-23 · Older than 7 days
Jon Ossoff: 50%Mike Collins: 42% Likely voters
n=1,200
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026
The Argument/Verasight
2026-09-16–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 55%Republican: 45% Likely voters
n=Not reported
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, sample / population, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
The New York Times/Siena University
2026-09-15–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 49%Troy Jackson: 46% Likely voters
n=619
Portland Press Herald
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
The New York Times/Siena University
2026-09-15–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 49%Mike Rogers: 44% Likely voters
n=605
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 New Hampshire
The New York Times/Siena University
2026-09-15–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
Chris Pappas: 50%John Sununu: 45% Likely voters
n=613
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
Slingshot Strategies
2026-09-19–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 49%Ken Paxton: 45%Ted Brown: 3% Likely voters
n=1,007
Texas Public Opinion Research
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Massachusetts
MassINC Polling Group
2026-09-14–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
Ed Markey: 52%Joe Tache: 2%John Deaton: 26%Shriya Ayyadurai: 2% Likely voters
n=800
CommonWealth Beacon
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
2026-09-20–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 47%Troy Jackson: 50% Likely voters
n=982
AARP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
Donald Trump
Emerson College
2026-09-21–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 39%Disapprove: 58% Likely voters
n=1,000
Emerson College Polling
Text-to-web and online panel
Credibility interval ±3
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13

Original release date not supplied in the checked page text. Historical availability starts at BTP’s first observation on October 13.


Source release →
2026
Emerson College
2026-09-21–2026-09-22 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 53%Republican: 42% Likely voters
n=1,000
Emerson College Polling
Text-to-web and online panel
Credibility interval ±3
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13

Original release date not supplied in the checked page text. Historical availability starts at BTP’s first observation on October 13.


Source release →
2026 Florida
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-20–2026-09-21 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 41.8%Ashley Moody: 49.3%Neil Gillespie: 2.4% Likely voters
n=600
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research
2026-09-14–2026-09-21 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 40%Ashley Moody: 51% Likely voters
n=830
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire
2026-09-17–2026-09-21 · Older than 7 days
Chris Pappas: 50%Edmond Laplante: 2%John Sununu: 42% Likely voters
n=1,418
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
University of New Hampshire
2026-09-17–2026-09-21 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 47%Troy Jackson: 51% Likely voters
n=1,312
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Cygnal/Beacon Research
2026-09-18–2026-09-21 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 45%Douglas P. Marsh: 0%Lydia Christensen: 1%Mike Rogers: 40%Tim Long: 0%Walter P. Kristy: 0% Likely voters
n=600
Michigan Enjoyer
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Massachusetts
University of New Hampshire
2026-09-17–2026-09-21 · Older than 7 days
Ed Markey: 53%Joe Tache: 9%John Deaton: 30% Likely voters
n=564
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Rhode Island
University of New Hampshire
2026-09-17–2026-09-21 · Older than 7 days
Jack Reed: 53%Michael Bahry: 5%Raymond McKay: 33% Likely voters
n=598
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
Marist University
2026-09-17–2026-09-20 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 42%Josh Turek: 50% Registered voters
n=1,050
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Suffolk University
2026-09-16–2026-09-20 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 47%Douglas P. Marsh: 0%Lydia Christensen: 1%Mike Rogers: 40%Tim Long: 0%Walter P. Kristy: 1% Likely voters
n=500
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center
2026-09-15–2026-09-19 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 47%Ken Paxton: 46%Ted Brown: 3% Likely voters
n=1,800
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Alaska
co/efficient
2026-09-14–2026-09-17 · Older than 7 days
Dan Sullivan: 49%Mary Peltola: 46% Likely voters
n=799
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
St. Pete Polls
2026-09-15–2026-09-17 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 44.8%Ashley Moody: 45.2% Likely voters
n=913
Florida Politics
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-16–2026-09-17 · Older than 7 days
Michael Dublin: 1.1%Michael Whatley: 42.5%Roy Cooper: 48.4%Shannon Bray: 1.6% Likely voters
n=1,200
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 New Hampshire
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-16–2026-09-17 · Older than 7 days
Chris Pappas: 48%John Sununu: 40% Likely voters
n=1,200
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
co/efficient
2026-09-14–2026-09-16 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 46%Josh Turek: 42%Thomas Laehn: 2% Likely voters
n=831
Sponsor not reportedPARTISAN · REP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
Trafalgar Group
2026-09-14–2026-09-16 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 42%Sherrod Brown: 45% Likely voters
n=1,085
Sponsor not reportedPARTISAN · REP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Kansas
Emerson College
2026-09-15–2026-09-16 · Older than 7 days
Adam Hamilton: 45%David Graham: 4%Roger Marshall: 43% Likely voters
n=750
Nexstar Media
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
High Point University Survey Research Center
2026-09-09–2026-09-16 · Older than 7 days
Michael Whatley: 42%Roy Cooper: 50% Likely voters
n=706
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
Quantus Insights
2026-09-14–2026-09-15 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 47.1%Troy Jackson: 46.4% Likely voters
n=621
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
Harper Polling
2026-09-13–2026-09-15 · Older than 7 days
Michael Dublin: 2%Michael Whatley: 34%Roy Cooper: 49%Shannon Bray: 3% Likely voters
n=608
Carolina Journal
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Montana
Quantus Insights
2026-09-14–2026-09-15 · Older than 7 days
Alani Bankhead: 23%Kurt Alme: 44%Seth Bodnar: 24% Likely voters
n=625
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
Donald Trump
Marist University
2026-09-14–2026-09-15 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 39%Disapprove: 59% Registered voters
n=1,280
NPR, PBS News
Live telephone, text and online
Sampling error ±3.8
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13
Source release →
2026
Marist University
2026-09-14–2026-09-15 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 53%Republican: 41% Registered voters
n=1,280
NPR, PBS News
Live telephone, text and online
Sampling error ±3.8
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13
Source release →
Are family finances getting worse?
Marist University
2026-09-14–2026-09-15 · Older than 7 days
About the same: 42%Better: 20%Worse: 34% Registered voters
n=1,280
NPR, PBS News
Live telephone, text and online
Sampling error ±3.8
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13
Source release →
2026
Big Data Poll
2026-09-13–2026-09-15 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 48.3%Republican: 37.4% Likely voters
n=2,633
Public Polling Project
Online panel, live-agent telephone and text-to-web
Publisher-reported error ±1.7
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13

Initial ballot only. The separate question with leaners gives 50.5% / 39.3% and is not substituted. The publisher calls ±1.7 a sampling error; its design includes an online panel, so we preserve that reported value without assuming a probability sample.


Source release →
Donald Trump
Big Data Poll
2026-09-13–2026-09-15 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 38.8%Disapprove: 58.5% Registered voters
n=2,947
Public Polling Project
Online panel, live-agent telephone and text-to-web
Publisher-reported error ±1.8
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13
Source release →
2026 Minnesota
SurveyUSA
2026-09-09–2026-09-14 · Older than 7 days
Marisa Simonetti: 2%Michele Tafoya: 42%Peggy Flanagan: 42%Rebecca Whiting: 2% Likely voters
n=654
KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government
2026-09-10–2026-09-14 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 48%Mike Rogers: 45% Likely voters
n=803
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
Emerson College
2026-09-12–2026-09-14 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 47%Ken Paxton: 46%Ted Brown: 2% Likely voters
n=1,000
Nexstar Media
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Emerson College
2026-09-12–2026-09-14 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 48.2%Douglas P. Marsh: 3%Lydia Christensen: 0.5%Mike Rogers: 45.7%Tim Long: 0.6%Walter P. Kristy: 0.3% Likely voters
n=1,000
Nexstar Media
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov
2026-08-28–2026-09-14 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 43%Troy Jackson: 48% Likely voters
n=650
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
ReconMR/Siena University
2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 49%Ken Paxton: 43% Likely voters
n=614
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Alaska
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · Older than 7 days
Dan Sullivan: 47%Mary Peltola: 53% Likely voters
n=800
AARP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Minnesota
Quantus Insights
2026-09-08–2026-09-10 · Older than 7 days
Michele Tafoya: 44.4%Peggy Flanagan: 48.2% Likely voters
n=720
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
Quantus Insights
2026-09-08–2026-09-10 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 42.7%Ashley Moody: 50.1% Likely voters
n=733
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 South Carolina
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-08–2026-09-09 · Older than 7 days
Annie Andrews: 43.2%Darline Graham: 45.1% Likely voters
n=1,200
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-08–2026-09-09 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 47.1%Ken Paxton: 45.6%Ted Brown: 2.2% Likely voters
n=1,200
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Ohio
InsiderAdvantage
2026-09-08–2026-09-09 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 41.9%Sherrod Brown: 47.3% Likely voters
n=1,200
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Michigan
Trafalgar Group
2026-09-07–2026-09-09 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 46.3%Douglas P. Marsh: 0.4%Lydia Christensen: 0.8%Mike Rogers: 44.8%Tim Long: 0.7%Walter P. Kristy: 0.2% Likely voters
n=1,079
Sponsor not reportedPARTISAN · REP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Florida
Change Research
2026-09-07–2026-09-09 · Older than 7 days
Angie Nixon: 47%Ashley Moody: 47% Likely voters
n=1,107
Freedom Project USA
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026
Marquette Law School
2026-09-02–2026-09-09 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 54%Republican: 41% Likely voters
n=581
Marquette Law School
SSRS probability-based online panel
Sampling error ±4.3
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13
Source release →
2026
Marquette Law School
2026-09-02–2026-09-09 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 50%Republican: 42% Registered voters
n=864
Marquette Law School
SSRS probability-based online panel
Sampling error ±3.6
Primary source checked
Checked 2026-10-13
Source release →
2026
YouGov
2026-09-04–2026-09-08 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 49%Republican: 38% Likely voters
n=1,015
The Economist
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Maine
YouGov
2026-09-02–2026-09-08 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 44%Troy Jackson: 48% Likely voters
n=1,335
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
YouGov
2026-09-03–2026-09-08 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 43%Josh Turek: 44% Registered voters
n=2,166
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
YouGov
2026-09-03–2026-09-08 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 43%Josh Turek: 47% Likely voters
n=2,041
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Nebraska
GBAO Strategies
2026-09-03–2026-09-08 · Older than 7 days
Dan Osborn: 47%Pete Ricketts: 46% Likely voters
n=800
Working Class Majority PACPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026
Morning Consult
2026-09-04–2026-09-06 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 46%Republican: 42% Registered voters
n=2,203
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
YouGov
2026-08-27–2026-09-04 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 48%Ken Paxton: 43% Registered voters
n=1,000
Univision
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
East Carolina University
2026-08-31–2026-09-03 · Older than 7 days
Michael Dublin: 1%Michael Whatley: 44%Roy Cooper: 52%Shannon Bray: 3% Likely voters
n=675
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Iowa
Emerson College
2026-08-31–2026-09-01 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 50%Josh Turek: 45% Likely voters
n=750
Nexstar Media
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 Texas
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
2026-08-30–2026-09-01 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 48%Ken Paxton: 44% Likely voters
n=895
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
2026 North Carolina
Elon University/YouGov
2026-08-21–2026-08-31 · Older than 7 days
Michael Dublin: 2%Michael Whatley: 38%Roy Cooper: 49%Shannon Bray: 2% Likely voters
n=565
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version
Source release →
Donald Trump
TIPP Insights
2026-08-25–2026-08-28 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 38%Disapprove: 52% Adults
n=1,461
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Michigan
EPIC-MRA
2026-08-22–2026-08-28 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 47%Mike Rogers: 43% Likely voters
n=600
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 New Mexico
Research & Polling Inc.
2026-08-21–2026-08-28 · Older than 7 days
Ben Ray Luján: 53%Larry Marker: 38% Likely voters
n=516
Albuquerque Journal
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Tennessee
Targoz Market Research
2026-08-15–2026-08-26 · Older than 7 days
Bill Hagerty: 51%Marquita Bradshaw: 31% Registered voters
n=1,157
Beacon Center of Tennessee
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
Donald Trump
Ipsos
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 37%Disapprove: 63% Registered voters
n=951
Reuters
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
Donald Trump
Ipsos
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 33%Disapprove: 65% Adults
n=1,215
Reuters
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
Donald Trump
YouGov
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 40%Disapprove: 57% Registered voters
n=1,379
The Economist
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
Donald Trump
YouGov
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 36%Disapprove: 57% Adults
n=1,536
The Economist
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026
Ipsos
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 41%Republican: 35% Registered voters
n=951
Reuters
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026
Ipsos
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 35%Republican: 29% Adults
n=1,215
Reuters
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026
YouGov
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 46%Republican: 40% Registered voters
n=1,377
The Economist
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026
YouGov
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 37%Republican: 31% Adults
n=1,534
The Economist
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire
2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Chris Pappas: 43%John Sununu: 45% Likely voters
n=1,878
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Texas
Slingshot Strategies
2026-08-21–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 48%Ken Paxton: 42%Ted Brown: 1% Likely voters
n=1,000
Texas Public Opinion Research
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Rhode Island
University of New Hampshire
2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Jack Reed: 51%Michael Bahry: 2%Raymond McKay: 31% Likely voters
n=750
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire
2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Chris Pappas: 45%Scott Brown: 40% Likely voters
n=1,878
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Massachusetts
University of New Hampshire
2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Ed Markey: 49%Joe Tache: 7%John Deaton: 30% Likely voters
n=881
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Massachusetts
University of New Hampshire
2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · Older than 7 days
Joe Tache: 16%John Deaton: 25%Seth Moulton: 38% Likely voters
n=881
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Iowa
Suffolk University
2026-08-20–2026-08-23 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 45.4%Josh Turek: 40.8% Likely voters
n=500
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Alaska
Alaska Survey Research
2026-08-20–2026-08-23 · Older than 7 days
Dan Sullivan: 49.4%Mary Peltola: 50.6% Likely voters
n=1,495
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Michigan
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov
2026-08-10–2026-08-20 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 50%Mike Rogers: 45% Likely voters
n=779
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Michigan
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov
2026-08-10–2026-08-20 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 48%Mike Rogers: 44% Registered voters
n=913
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Arkansas
J.L. Partners
2026-08-14–2026-08-18 · Older than 7 days
Hallie Shoffner: 35%Jeff Wadlin: 4%Tom Cotton: 51% Likely voters
n=803
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 New Hampshire
Saint Anselm College Survey Center
2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · Older than 7 days
Chris Pappas: 48%John Sununu: 41% Likely voters
n=1,411
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 New Hampshire
Saint Anselm College Survey Center
2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · Older than 7 days
Chris Pappas: 49%Scott Brown: 37% Likely voters
n=1,411
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
Donald Trump
RMG Research
2026-08-10–2026-08-17 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 42%Disapprove: 55% Registered voters
n=2,000
Napolitan Institute
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Michigan
Susquehanna Polling & Research
2026-08-11–2026-08-17 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 46%Mike Rogers: 39% Registered voters
n=800
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Georgia
InsiderAdvantage
2026-08-16–2026-08-17 · Older than 7 days
Jon Ossoff: 50.1%Mike Collins: 42.6% Likely voters
n=800
James Magazine
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Minnesota
SurveyUSA
2026-08-13–2026-08-17 · Older than 7 days
Marisa Simonetti: 1%Michele Tafoya: 41%Peggy Flanagan: 46%Rebecca Whiting: 1% Likely voters
n=661
KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window

Donald Trump
Noble Predictive Insights
2026-08-12–2026-08-16 · Older than 7 days
Approve: 42%Disapprove: 56% Registered voters
n=2,533
The Center Square
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026
Noble Predictive Insights
2026-08-12–2026-08-16 · Older than 7 days
Democrat: 47%Republican: 42% Registered voters
n=2,533
The Center Square
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Mississippi
Data for Progress
2026-08-05–2026-08-15 · Older than 7 days
Cindy Hyde-Smith: 47%Scott Colom: 41% Likely voters
n=1,018
Way to Lead PACPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Ohio
Wedgewood Polls
2026-08-11–2026-08-13 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 44%Sherrod Brown: 48% Likely voters
n=800
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Texas
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov
2026-08-05–2026-08-13 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 42%Ken Paxton: 39%Ted Brown: 3% Registered voters
n=1,218
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Massachusetts
University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov
2026-08-05–2026-08-12 · Older than 7 days
Ed Markey: 51%John Deaton: 30% Registered voters
n=800
WCVB-TV
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Massachusetts
University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov
2026-08-05–2026-08-12 · Older than 7 days
John Deaton: 25%Seth Moulton: 49% Registered voters
n=800
WCVB-TV
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 North Carolina
High Point University Survey Research Center
2026-08-03–2026-08-12 · Older than 7 days
Michael Whatley: 45%Roy Cooper: 50% Likely voters
n=660
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 North Carolina
High Point University Survey Research Center
2026-08-03–2026-08-12 · Older than 7 days
Michael Whatley: 41%Roy Cooper: 48% Registered voters
n=800
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Michigan
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
2026-08-09–2026-08-11 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 48%Mike Rogers: 47% Likely voters
n=877
AARP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Maine
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
2026-08-06–2026-08-10 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 46%Troy Jackson: 48% Registered voters
n=1,000
Fox News
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Texas
Emerson College
2026-08-09–2026-08-10 · Older than 7 days
James Talarico: 46%Ken Paxton: 47% Likely voters
n=1,000
Nexstar Media
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 North Carolina
Harper Polling
2026-08-09–2026-08-10 · Older than 7 days
Michael Whatley: 39%Roy Cooper: 51.5% Likely voters
n=600
The Carolina Journal
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Ohio
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
2026-08-06–2026-08-10 · Older than 7 days
Jon Husted: 45%Sherrod Brown: 53% Registered voters
n=1,008
Fox News
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Michigan
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
2026-08-06–2026-08-10 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 47%Mike Rogers: 51% Registered voters
n=1,006
Fox News
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Michigan
GBAO Strategies
2026-08-06–2026-08-10 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 50%Mike Rogers: 44% Likely voters
n=800
Senate Majority PACPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Michigan
TIPP Insights
2026-08-06–2026-08-10 · Older than 7 days
Abdul El-Sayed: 45%Mike Rogers: 42% Registered voters
n=1,528
League of American WorkersPARTISAN · REP
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Idaho
The Bullfinch Group
2026-08-04–2026-08-07 · Older than 7 days
Jim Risch: 34%Matt Loesby: 4%Todd Achilles: 30% Likely voters
n=608
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 North Carolina
Change Research
2026-08-03–2026-08-06 · Older than 7 days
Michael Whatley: 43%Roy Cooper: 50% Likely voters
n=915
Carolina ForwardPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Alaska
Alaska Survey Research
2026-08-02–2026-08-05 · Older than 7 days
Dan Sullivan: 49.2%Mary Peltola: 50.8% Likely voters
n=1,371
Sponsor not reported
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
sponsor, reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Iowa
Emerson College
2026-08-02–2026-08-04 · Older than 7 days
Ashley Hinson: 48%Josh Turek: 45% Likely voters
n=712
Nexstar Media
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Montana
Hart Research Associates
2026-08-01–2026-08-04 · Older than 7 days
Alani Bankhead: 15%Kurt Alme: 45%Kyle Austin: 6%Seth Bodnar: 30% Likely voters
n=800
Forward Montana
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 Maine
Hart Research Associates
2026-07-27–2026-08-01 · Older than 7 days
Susan Collins: 45%Troy Jackson: 49% Likely voters
n=802
Senate Majority PACPARTISAN · DEM
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →
2026 North Carolina
Change Research
2026-07-29–2026-08-01 · Older than 7 days
Michael Whatley: 41%Roy Cooper: 50% Likely voters
n=967
Talking About Politics
Method not reported
Error not reported
Awaiting methods
reported error, survey method, primary-source check, question / ballot version

Outside the averaging window


Source release →