Five days before the United States struck Venezuela, Senator Markwayne Mullin bought RTX stock. RTX makes the missiles. He sits on Senate Armed Services. He receives the classified briefings. His office says he “does not conduct nor inform trades.” He has traded $24.25 million since 2023. He is not alone. Three other members. Four portfolios. One ceasefire that expires Wednesday.

In This Issue

The Iran ceasefire expires Wednesday. Four members of Congress who receive classified briefings on the war hold millions in defense contractor stocks. Those stocks surge every time peace fails.

This is not speculation. The trades are filed. The briefings are logged. The gains are public.

On December 29, 2025, Senator Markwayne Mullin, Republican from Oklahoma, purchased between $15,000 and $50,000 in RTX stock. RTX makes the missiles. Five days later, the United States struck Venezuela. Mullin sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee. He receives classified briefings on military operations.

His office says the trades are handled by a third-party firm. “He does not conduct nor inform trades.” He has bought and sold $24.25 million in stocks since 2023 across 501 trades. Forty percent of his December purchases aligned with sectors his committees oversee. His net worth is between $23.7 million and $100.2 million.

He does not inform trades.

Representative Gil Cisneros, Democrat from California, sits on the House Armed Services Committee. Subcommittees: Intelligence and Special Operations. Seapower and Projection Forces. Since September 2025, he has accumulated nine defense contractor positions. General Dynamics. RTX. Boeing. Lockheed Martin. Honeywell. Palantir. On December 15, he purchased AeroVironment, the drone manufacturer. The stock rose 54 percent in one month.

His spokesperson said the trades are managed by “outside financial advisors who have a fiduciary responsibility to maintain a diverse portfolio.”

Representative Michael McCaul, Republican from Texas, is a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and its former chair. He retains classified briefing access on Iran. In January 2025, he bought GE Aerospace stock worth $50,000 to $75,000. It is up 82 percent. In March 2025, he bought Woodward Incorporated, which makes precision controls for military aircraft. It is up 114 percent.

McCaul traded $57.7 million in stocks in 2025 alone. One thousand and eight trades. His career total is $514.65 million across 4,645 trades and 504 different companies.

He has made no public statement about his defense stock positions.

Senator Ashley Moody, Republican from Florida, purchased Howmet Aerospace in January 2025. Between $50,000 and $100,000. A second purchase in April 2025. Between $15,000 and $50,000. Howmet makes structural components for fighter jets and military aircraft. The first purchase is up 107 percent. The second is up 133 percent.

Every office gave the same answer. Third-party advisor. Fiduciary responsibility. Diverse portfolio. Independent firm.

Mullin’s spokesperson: “He does not conduct nor inform trades.”

Cisneros’s spokesperson: “The Congressman and his wife do not manage the day-to-day trading of their investments.”

It is the same statement. Word for word across parties. The same PR firm template. The same assumption that the disclosure is the accountability.

The disclosure is not the accountability. The disclosure is the receipt.

The late-filing penalty under the STOCK Act is $200. It is routinely waived by the ethics committees. No member of Congress has ever been prosecuted for insider trading under the STOCK Act. Not one. The law was written by the people it governs.

Quote of the Day

What does “inform” mean when you sit in the briefing room? The briefing is in the calendar. The trade is on the tape. The silence is bipartisan.

Number of the Day

On February 28, 2026, Operation Epic Fury launched. Joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran. On the first trading day after, March 2, Northrop Grumman rose 6 percent. Lockheed Martin rose 3.5 percent. RTX rose 4.7 percent. Since the June 2025 strikes that started the war, Lockheed Martin is up 40 percent. Northrop Grumman is up 46 percent. Cisneros’s spring 2025 positions gained 38 to 53 percent. McCaul’s GE Aerospace is up 82 percent. Moody’s Howmet is up 133 percent. Moody sits on Senate Armed Services. She votes on the contracts Howmet fills.

The ceasefire expires Wednesday. No deal is in sight. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 6 percent to $89 a barrel on Monday. Brent surged to $95.50. If the ceasefire fails, every one of these portfolios climbs again.

The law that could hold them accountable has produced exactly zero prosecutions since it passed in 2012. Not one. The penalty for late disclosure is $200. The penalty for insider trading is discretionary —and the discretion sits with the committees the members serve on.

The Enforcement Vacuum

Walk the corridor from Armed Services to the Senate dining room. Mullin has made that walk 501 times since 2023 — once for every trade. Cisneros has nine defense positions waiting at the end of his. The hallway is the same. The rules on paper are the same. The consequences are not.

I have sat in rooms where the question is never on paper but the answer always is. I know what a staffer looks like when they are writing down a thing that is never supposed to be written down. I know the meeting that happens thirty seconds after the briefing —the one where a member steps into the anteroom, takes out the other phone, and says a name and a ticker and a number. Nobody writes that down either. The fine is $200. The ethics committee waives it. Fourteen years. Nobody has had to.

The STOCK Act was passed in 2012 with great speeches. The penalty that was supposed to deter the trade is $200. The prosecutor who is supposed to bring the case has been gutted. The DOJ Public Integrity Section is down to two lawyers. The CFTC has one commissioner left. The SEC’s enforcement chief resigned in March because she was not allowed to do her job.

The Virginia Win

Jeffries named eight.

Virginians did the thing Democrats have spent fifteen years explaining why they couldn’t do. They voted YES —on a ballot measure that stopped a MAGA power grab and protected the integrity of the election. Governor Abigail Spanberger. Speaker Don Scott. Majority Leader Scott Surovell. President Pro Tempore L. Louise Lucas. The ticket Republicans assumed would roll over ran the table instead.

It was not just Virginia. Democrats won Prop 50 in California. Reclaimed a seat in Utah. Pushed back extremists in Ohio. Halted GOP efforts in Indiana, New Hampshire, Nebraska, and Kansas. For the first time this decade, the map moved the other direction on the same night.

Then Hakeem Jeffries released the statement. It was not a celebration. It was a threat letter.

Eight Florida Republicans. Named. In a statement. By the House Minority Leader. Democrats have not talked like that in a decade. AOC quote-tweeted it with four words. That is coalition discipline —progressive flank and leadership office pointing at the same target.

Maximum warfare. Everywhere. All the time. For fifteen years, the other side’s slogan. Tonight, ours.

2026 Watch

The races where the war is already on the ballot.

2028 Watch

The primary nobody is calling a primary. Yet.

By the time a candidate announces, the primary is half decided. We are in the half nobody is watching.

The Jobs Board

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This Week’s Homework

Three things to do before Wednesday’s ceasefire deadline.